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Post by tontoman on Mar 3, 2007 2:12:14 GMT
I know you're psychologically bias to thing it's going against you, but while playing for fortnight I'm at the point of starting to count up to work out the real percentages. With a 40% chance hit, I've had multiple 10 misses streaks, but I've never had a 10 hit streak (or 8,7, or even 5) for the flip side. Is it just me? I'm counting from now on just for curiosities sake T.
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Ms. Cleo
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Post by Ms. Cleo on Mar 3, 2007 2:17:35 GMT
Well its only at 40%, so it leans more towards misses. You're just experiencing a string of bad luck.
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Post by grigori on Mar 3, 2007 2:19:05 GMT
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Post by Ty on Mar 3, 2007 2:37:05 GMT
My zombie alt has 35% chance to hit, but somehow got like 8 hits in a row on a survivor. Right after that, it took my other zombie (with max skills) 40 tries to break down 2 barricade levels. There's good days and bad, my friend.
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Ms. Cleo
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Post by Ms. Cleo on Mar 3, 2007 5:03:28 GMT
W. T. F.
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Post by grigori on Mar 3, 2007 5:10:01 GMT
W. T. F. Don't look at me, I didn't write it. Just thought it was funny.
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Remellion
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Post by Remellion on Mar 3, 2007 6:28:56 GMT
Funny, but oh-so-true.
*immediately gets swallowed by unprobability*
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Post by tontoman on Mar 3, 2007 8:49:05 GMT
Well its only at 40%, so it leans more towards misses. You're just experiencing a string of bad luck. Heh, that's why I said 8,7 or even 5, should be able to get that. It's interesting actually, as a programmer I know there are different types of random number generators and you have to be careful which ones you use. eg. If you need perfect distribution, you can have one that makes random numbers that never repeat until all the numbers you want are used up. I wonder how his are setup Can't complain I guess, no huge streaks but did wax two healthy zombies at pitneybank with still enough AP left to find a hideaway. No reloading though, PDs are locked super tight. T.
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Remellion
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Post by Remellion on Mar 3, 2007 23:43:23 GMT
40% = 2/5 Chance of 5 hits in a row = (2/5)^5 = 0.01024 (1%) Chance of 2 hits in a row = (2/5)^2 = 0.16 (16%)
It's all a matter of the numbers.
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Post by tontoman on Mar 13, 2007 4:11:09 GMT
That's why I mentioned the 10 misses in a row 40% chance to hit means 60% (3/5) chance to miss
(3/5)^10= 0.0060466176 or .6%
But I'm not even suprised if I miss 10 in a row with my axe. Flakey.
T.
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